Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

The headline Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figures fell short of expectations, but underlying data showed strength with higher wages and a decrease in the unemployment rate. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 35, its lowest level since September 2024. Crypto majors chop while alts continue to bleed, and the memecoin market has lost $44 billion in three weeks. Many AI coins have declined by 90% from their all-time highs, and liquidity is fragmented across too many coins.

Upcoming Macro Calendar – Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

The sharp selloff on Monday was quickly followed by a rebound. Yet, the market risk sentiment remained rather depressed as the market gradually consolidated on the lower bound for the rest of the week. Implied volatility cooled down further as realised volatility drifted lower on the downward consolidation move. The market will most likely remain volatile as we embrace Trump’s innings which will keep the market very headline-driven. Consequently, IV is trading at premium vs RV. ETH got a harder hit, pushing the ETH/BTC ratio to a multi-year low. Front-end skew continued to favour puts as the market hasn’t fully shaken off the anxiety. Mid-term call plays were also rolled to longer maturities and at lower strikes.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

• BlackRock plans to launch a spot Bitcoin investment product in Switzerland.

• Musk's DOGE team will seek read-only access to the U.S. government central accounting system next week.

• Christian have locked all his $CHEEMS to show support for the project and BNB Chain.

• In the past 7 days, USDC circulation has increased by approximately 2.6 billion coins.

• According to RootData, ARB will unlock tokens worth approximately $56.049 million in one week.

• The game ecosystem based on Base, B3.fun, tweeted that players who have gained XP and BP can check for airdrop slots on the designated page.

• CZ: I have never purchased or owned TST, which used Binance's logo without authorization.

• RootData released a comparative analysis chart of market cap pullbacks across various crypto sectors, showing that AI Agent experienced the largest pullback at -72.41%.

Macro

The major indices finished the week slightly lower: the DJIA lost 0.5%, the S&P 500 lost 0.2%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.5%. Chinese equities finished the first week after Chinese New Year with solid gains: the Shanghai Composite Index added +1.63%, the CSI 300 added +1.98% and the Hang Seng index +4.49%.